Groundhog Accuracy...

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Reported by: Deitra Tate

Email: dtate@local15tv.com

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Published: 2/03 11:03 pm

Updated: 2/04 2:08 am

Each year, many eyes turn to the famous Punxsutawney Phil to see if it will see its shadow or not. According to folklore, if it sees its shadow...then there will be 6 more weeks of Winter. If it does not see its shadow, then there's suppose to be an early Spring. This year (2013), the famous ground hog did NOT see its shadow...so, believers are prepping for an early Spring.

Yet, how accurate is Punxsutawney's forecasts? According to stormfax.com, the groundhog only has a 39% accuracy rate...not very high. As a matter of fact, last year, Punxsutawney did see its shadow...so folks were expecting a prolonged Winter. That forecast was a bust since 2012 goes in the history books as the 4th warmest Winter on record in the U.S.

Since Punxsutawney is predicting an early Spring, does that match up with the Climate Prediction Center's Temperature Outlook for the rest of Februrary & March? Well, February's outlook calls for warmer than normal temperatures for the Central Plains, Southern Plains, and the Southeastern U.S. This falls in line with the unseasonably warm weather that the Gulf Coast experienced in January.

Looking at the three-month temperature outlook for February, March, and April... only a small northwestern chunk of the U.S. is expected to receive below normal temps. The rest of the country is expected to either experience warmer than normal temps or have an equal chance at experiencing it.

So, at least for this year, Punxsutawney Phil may have gotten lucky & is on to something regarding the Early Spring:-)
**But, remember that our Local15 Weather Authority team has the Most Accurate Forecast...so, you can't go wrong with us:-)
***Plus, regardless of how it feels outside...the official start of Spring isn't until March 20th:-)

Meteorologist Deitra Tate

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The Weather Authority Team

	Derek Beasley Derek Beasley is Chief Meteorologist for LOCAL 15 The Weather Authority.
	Kelly Foster Kelly Foster is LOCAL 15's morning meteorologist.
	Deitra Tate Deitra Tate is our Weekend/ WeatherPlus Meteorologist. She's been a part of The Weather Authority team since 2006.

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