El Nino is weakening. The latest analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST's) in the equatorial Pacific indicate El Nino has reached its peak and waters continue to cool. This trend has allowed El Nino to weaken to a moderate phase as opposed to a strong phase. The active subtropical jet and feed of Pacific moisture that has kept our temperatures cooler than normal and our precipitation higher than average will continue to bring the same conditions through March, but the effects of El Nino should diminish into the Spring.
With El Nino becoming non-existent by summer, and with the start of the Atlantic hurricane season occuring in June, we are expecting a much more active hurricane season. The strong subtropical jet that kept upper level wind shear strong, subsequently hindering tropical cyclone development last hurricane season will diminish allowing for a more calm environment for hurricanes to develop. The end of the last strong El Nino, which occured in 1997 and and early 1998 led to a very active hurricane season that summer, producing 3 major hurricanes including Hurricane Mitch, a category 5 storm that struck Central America. Only time will tell how this season will pan out, but the chances of us seeing a hurricane will increase significantly this summer. Stay tuned!
Chief Meteorologist Derek Beasley
